World Cup Favorites
A month ago, France was the favorite in World Cup futures odds, and now with a 5-0 record and a 14-2 goal differential, the French are even stronger favorites to lift the trophy. The public betting masses overwhelmingly believe in Kylian Mbappé & Co. 'Les Bleus have been popular since Day 1, given the quality of their team along with their star power,' Caesars Sports vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said Wednesday night. 'In the futures, they are head and shoulders the most popular team remaining.'
France is more than familiar with this territory, having reached the past two championship matches, beating Croatia in 2018 and rallying to force overtime vs. Argentina in 2022, before losing in a penalty-kick shootout. France enters the quarterfinals coming off two straight knockout stage shutouts — 3-0 vs. Sweden in the Round of 32 and 1-0 vs. Paraguay in the Round of 16.
Betting Trends
Bettors have been on France since the group stage and kept on riding Les Bleus in the knockout matches. 'One of the best results of the tournament for bettors came with France’s victory over Iraq,' Mucklow said of a 3-0 shutout, while noting that Mbappé netting two goals in that match contributed to a big win for Caesars customers. The knockout stage raised the wagering interest in France, with both of France’s knockout games drawing significant money.
France holds the fifth- and eighth-best-handled games of the tournament to date, vs. Paraguay and vs. Sweden. Among non-USA matches, France was involved in two of the top six, in terms of money wagered. France is the most popular team in World Cup championship futures, taking more dollars than any of the other seven quarter-finalists. 'Of the remaining teams, they are the best result for bettors. Argentina follows as second-best, then Norway and Spain,' Mucklow said.
Quarterfinals Preview
France opens the quarterfinal round with a 4 p.m. ET Thursday match. Spain vs. Belgium follows at 3 p.m. ET on Friday, and the quarters wrap up Saturday with Norway vs. England at 5 p.m. ET and Argentina vs. Switzerland at 9 p.m. ET. All matches are on FOX.
Defending World Cup champion Argentina has gotten all it could handle in its last two matches, but Lionel Messi & Co. aren’t to be denied. 'If anything, it has turned on bettors,' Mucklow said of Argentina’s heroics. 'Rarely do you see world champions struggle with, in theory, lesser opponents.'
Golden Boot Race
The race for the Golden Boot is on, too, and no surprise, Messi and Mbappé are at the top. Messi leads a tight chase with eight goals, while Mbappé has seven, as does Norway star Erling Haaland. 'The customers win big to Mbappé, but Messi is a [good] result for the book,' Mucklow said.
Indeed, since Norway faces England, Haaland or Kane have an edge on Mbappé and Messi. Caesars has Messi as the +110 favorite in Golden Boot odds, with Mbappé close behind at +125. There’s probably some value in taking Haaland or Kane, and certainly a better payout — if you can correctly pick which one stays alive this weekend.
